Trends

System

Hi There

This is going to sound like a dumb question but I have completely forgotten how to do it. I have been given trend figures for sales for 2006 and the seasonal variations expressed as percentages, how do I forecast the sales for 2007. An example is:

Sales (2006)
Quarter 1 = 320,000
Quarter 2 = 325,000
Quarter 3 = 330,000
Quarter 4 = 335,000
Seasonal Variations
Quarter 1 = -18%
Quarter 2 = +21%
Quarter 3 = +7%
Quarter 4 = -10%

I have answered the question but when I check it against the answers I come up with a completely different answer. Its going to be something really easy but I can't remember.

Please help!

Cheers
Ange

System

Re:Trends

The trend shows growth each quarter of 5,000

So The Sales trend for 2007 would be
Quarter 1 = 340,000
Quarter 2 = 345,000
Quarter 3 = 350,000
Quarter 4 = 355,000

Just adding 5,000 on to the previous quarter

The Sales forecast would then be:-
Quarter 1 = 340,000 -18% = 278,800
Quarter 2 = 345,000 +21% = 417,450
Quarter 3 = 350,000 +7% = 374,500
Quarter 4 = 355,000 -10% = 319,500

Good luck Ange

sandy.hood@chichester.ac.uk