June 06 exam

System
System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
edited 10:27AM in AAT student discussion
I am doing the June 06 past exam paper and on task 1.2 it asks to calculate the seasonlly adjusted sales volume for each quarter but the seasonal variations that are shown as a minus figure has been added on on the answers by the examiner!!

Does anyone know why these have been added to get the adjusted sales volume as I thought I would have to take it off???

Please help, I am stressing like mad now about this exam :cry:

Comments

  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    To get the seasonally adjusted figures, you are trying to take out the seasonality to leave you with the figure before seasonality.

    Therefore you are deducting the seasonality variation. Using your mathematical knowledge, minusing a minus means you add it.

    You know when you have got it round the right way, because all the figures should be closer together.

    Hope that helps.
    Gillianne
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    Oh yeah I get it now thanks, I dont suppose you now how to adjust for it as a percentage do you?

    Cheers
    Kelly
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    I'm not sure what you mean. Do you have a specific question?


  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    To adjust using a %
      Find the seasonal variation as actual sales
    divided by the trend value (unlike the additive approach where you take it awayThis will produce the seasonal variation for that quarter as a decimal (mulitpy by 100 to get a %)
      Then
    multiply the projected trend value by the seasonal variation for that quarter toget a sales projection
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    Using the data from June 2006 and some calculations:
    Quarter ... Trend Value... Seasonal variation
      1.
    ccccccc20,000ccccccc 110%
      2.
    ccccccc20,400cccccccc 95%
      3.
    ccccccc20,800ccccccc 105%
      4.
    ccccccc21,200cccccccc 91%
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    You can then project (or extrapolate) the trend into the next year.
    In this case the trend is growing by 400 per quarter. If it continues like that we can expect:-
    Quarter ... Trend Value... Seasonal variation
      1.
    ccccccc21,600ccccccc 110%
      2.
    ccccccc22,000cccccccc 95%
      3.
    ccccccc22,400ccccccc 105%
      4.
    ccccccc22,800cccccccc 91%
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    And the sales forecast for that year would be the trend multiplied by the seasonal variation (my answers are rounded where necessary)
    Quarter ... Trend Value... Seasonal variation ... Sales forecast
      1.
    ccccccc21,600ccccccc 110%cccccccccccccc23,760
      2.
    ccccccc22,000cccccccc 95%cccccccccccccc20,900
      3.
    ccccccc22,400ccccccc 105%cccccccccccccc23,520
      4.
    ccccccc22,800cccccccc 91%cccccccccccccc20,748

    I hope this helps.
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Re:June 06 exam

    That does help,

    Thanks Sandy much appreciated :D

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