Question for Sandy Hood - PCR Dec 08

Pigpen
Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
in AAT Level 4 (Level 8 in Scotland)
"""""This will be the first exam set by a new examiner. I have signed up to attend a special session organised for him to discuss the emphasis he plans to take in the exams. This is just for lecturers and will be on Friday 21st, the day before the revision session.
Sandy
__________________
sandy.hood@chichester.ac.uk """"""

Sandy - Ref your post above - Do you have any words of wisdom about this new examiner now you have attended his day?

Would be grateful if you can let us know if you think the exam will be similar to the past papers or not - Thanks Sandy
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Comments

  • King of the Mountains
    King of the Mountains Registered Posts: 66 Regular contributor ⭐
    Yes please Sandy! I was hoping you would up date us. Thanks.
  • SandyHood
    SandyHood Registered, Moderator Posts: 2,034 mod
    I'm not expecting many changes this time, but I'd expect forecasting and an explanation of variances to feature as the second part of the respective sections
    Also, expect guidance on time on each part of the section
    Sandy
    sandy@sandyhood.com
    www.sandyhood.com
  • Richard
    Richard Registered Posts: 373 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    Hi Sandy,

    Does the same examiner also set the unit 33 MAC exam?

    Thanks
  • SandyHood
    SandyHood Registered, Moderator Posts: 2,034 mod
    The PCR examiner is Tony Stevens
    The PEV and MAC examiner is Cliff Floyd
    Sandy
    sandy@sandyhood.com
    www.sandyhood.com
  • pink
    pink Registered Posts: 35 Regular contributor ⭐
    Hi Sandy

    When you say forecasting, do you mean profit forecasting or the forecasting as in the time series analysis and seasonal variation trends?

    Thanks, Stacey
  • SandyHood
    SandyHood Registered, Moderator Posts: 2,034 mod
    Examiners have to be careful otherwise they would be giving away the questions.
    9.1 is the area that has been under-assessed in the past, and that is sales forecasting
    But don't assume that historic data will determine future sales. Time Series Analysis is a way of taking account of seasonality - but would you honestly rely on it at your work?

    Look at the MFI historical trends. Does time series really help if you want to forecast sales for January 2009?

    Don't ignore sampling, if you are using market research then sampling to forecast sales could be reasonably up-to-date.
    Sandy
    sandy@sandyhood.com
    www.sandyhood.com
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    I am now panicing as our tutor hasnt covered any of that in our lessons :crying: We did a bit about different methods of sampling but everything you have just said about forecasting and MFI historical trends doesnt mean a lot to me!
    Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    I am now panicing as our tutor hasnt covered any of that in our lessons :crying: We did a bit about different methods of sampling but everything you have just said about forecasting and MFI historical trends doesnt mean a lot to me!
    Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:
  • pink
    pink Registered Posts: 35 Regular contributor ⭐
    Ooops, I thought Sandy was using MFI as an example as in the MFI Shop!!?
  • princess
    princess Registered Posts: 80 Regular contributor ⭐
    What is MFI?????? If you got the osbourne book then element 9.1 is pages 245-273......
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    I must admit I think Sandy did mean MFI (the troubled furniture store) - In that you wouldn't expect their sales to increase next year if you were forcasting - so projections based on the last few years sales would not be useful and another method of forecasting sales would need to be adopted

    Well that's what I gathered from his comment especially as it was the day after they ran into trouble!

    Sandy clear this one up for us pleeeeeeeeeeease !
  • princess
    princess Registered Posts: 80 Regular contributor ⭐
    Hehe, i have been googling MFI - cost accounting......whoopsie!!!

    Still not sure on sampling tho....can anyone help? do we need to calculate or just explain what they are?
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    I think he (Sandy) means that if you can't use time series as a way of forecasting because of the economic downturn and sales in decline generally then you should find another way of forecasting sales - I.e market research and sampling - You see this kind of thing on the news all the time - Recently the TV have been sampling Joe public to see if the VAT cut would make us spend more - Generally the answer was no - Don't forget there are loads of variations of sampling so probably worth reading thru them all again!
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    But remember - this time tomorrow it will all be over ! Yippppppeeeeeeeee

    Bring on Xmas !
  • SandyHood
    SandyHood Registered, Moderator Posts: 2,034 mod
    MFI is the name of a company in financial difficulties

    If I asked you to predict the weight of a turkey and told you that the last few days had enabled me to put together a linear regression formula of say
    Y = a + bX
    with Y = weight
    a = a fixed weight of 1.5 kg
    b = an incremental weight of 0.1 kg
    and X = the number of the day
    Then if today (Dec 3rd is day 20)
    Y = 1.5kg + (0.1kg x 20)
    i.e the weight today is 3.5 kg

    and tomorrow would be 3.6 kg

    How much will my turkey weigh on 27th December?????
    Sandy
    sandy@sandyhood.com
    www.sandyhood.com
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    5.9kg??

    I cannot believe that our tutor hasnt covered anything on linear regression, in fact anything much at all to do with sales forecasting so now i am panicing and trying to teach myself the day before the exam! :crying:
  • renae
    renae Registered Posts: 76 Regular contributor ⭐
    Hi Sandy.... so what would the answer be?? I am getting that sick feeling now - as all my revision is based on past papers as I missed many lessons.... the y=a+bx formula means nothing....and future forecasting was last years reveion....eeeeek
  • renae
    renae Registered Posts: 76 Regular contributor ⭐
    Tezza.....thats what I thought the answer was..........maybe we can blag it?! Either that or I am going to pretend that I never logged on here today, & just keep revising the past papers......ignorance is bliss!
  • Brownie3
    Brownie3 Registered Posts: 45 Regular contributor ⭐
    It would be....

    27th Dec - Day 25?

    1.5kg + 0.1 x 45 - 6kg?

    Alternative answer

    Surely nothing, as it's bound to be in my belly by 3pm on the 25th Dec :-)
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    blaggin it is defo the way forward lol!
    im just wondering what else i need to know that hasnt been covered in our lessons! :ohmy:
    Any more examples Sandy??
  • Brownie3
    Brownie3 Registered Posts: 45 Regular contributor ⭐
    Not sure how Sandy is gong to know what you've not learn't in your lesson?

    You'll be ok, be postive!

    We'll all be fine come lunchtime tomorrow
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    27th Dec = Day 44
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    1.5kg + 0.1 x 44 - 5.9kg?

    Thats what I made it
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    After Sandy had said that area 9.1 on sales forecasting was something that was probably going to come up in the exam, i posted that this is something our tutor hasnt gone over! I think it includes all sorts of things such as linear regression, time series analysis etc so i was hoping for some more info or examples like the turkey one previously so i know what i need to cover before the morning! So glad i logged on here now lol!
  • SandyHood
    SandyHood Registered, Moderator Posts: 2,034 mod
    Brownie3 Well done
    Surely nothing, as it's bound to be in my belly by 3pm on the 25th Dec :-)

    Look at the context of a question

    Surely turkeys would be sold, plucked and prepared, then cooked and eaten by then.

    Next question
    Do you drive a car according to what you see in the rear view mirror (historic data) or because of what you see ahead of you through the windscreen?

    Who says a historic pattern will repeat in the future?
    Sandy
    sandy@sandyhood.com
    www.sandyhood.com
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    Im not sure what u mean about the turkey question
    What was the correct answer?
  • renae
    renae Registered Posts: 76 Regular contributor ⭐
    Same here... I am doing the June 07 paper trying to make myself feel better, as that has historical data & no turkey questions!!:lol:

    Just a shame that most of section one stems from the sales...so if I stuff that up then everything will be out!

    I Heard a rumour once about the rotation of papers, & was advised for my FRA last year to pay special attention to the Dec 2005 paper....which I did...and to be fair they were VERY simular.
    Not sure if the same rule applies, but I will def be casting an eye over the June 06 PCR paper tonight....just in case x
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    Lol - Thanks Sandy

    Thats' what I guessed you mean't by the MFI comment but completely ,missed the signifigance of the date on the turkey question - But my brain does hurt this week after PEV on Monday & PCR tomoz - Its harder for us more "mature" students you know :lol:
  • tezza.b
    tezza.b Registered Posts: 14 New contributor 🐸
    why is it day 45? can u explain i cant get it! :confused1:
  • Pigpen
    Pigpen Registered Posts: 331 Dedicated contributor 🦉
    tezza.b wrote: »
    Im not sure what u mean about the turkey question
    What was the correct answer?

    What Sandy mean't was that if you use time series alone without "thinking outside the box" as it were, the turkey would indeed be 5.9kg

    But as it is Dec 27th the turkey would most likely have been eaten so the time series is only relevant up to the day it is made into Turkey dinner.

    If you were told to forecast MFI sales for Jan - Knowing they had gone into receivership you would not base Jans sales on last years figures so you would have to consider another method of forecasting these sales.

    Time series is only useful where a trend is expected to continue - I shouldn't think there are many Businesses basing sales for next year on historical data from the last few years now that we are hurtling into recession

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