Question for Sandy Hood - PCR Dec 08

Pigpen

"""""This will be the first exam set by a new examiner. I have signed up to attend a special session organised for him to discuss the emphasis he plans to take in the exams. This is just for lecturers and will be on Friday 21st, the day before the revision session.
Sandy
__________________
sandy.hood@chichester.ac.uk """"""

Sandy - Ref your post above - Do you have any words of wisdom about this new examiner now you have attended his day?

Would be grateful if you can let us know if you think the exam will be similar to the past papers or not - Thanks Sandy

King of the Mountains

Yes please Sandy! I was hoping you would up date us. Thanks.

SandyHood

I'm not expecting many changes this time, but I'd expect forecasting and an explanation of variances to feature as the second part of the respective sections
Also, expect guidance on time on each part of the section

Richard

Hi Sandy,

Does the same examiner also set the unit 33 MAC exam?

Thanks

SandyHood

The PCR examiner is Tony Stevens
The PEV and MAC examiner is Cliff Floyd

pink

Hi Sandy

When you say forecasting, do you mean profit forecasting or the forecasting as in the time series analysis and seasonal variation trends?

Thanks, Stacey

SandyHood

Examiners have to be careful otherwise they would be giving away the questions.
9.1 is the area that has been under-assessed in the past, and that is sales forecasting
But don't assume that historic data will determine future sales. Time Series Analysis is a way of taking account of seasonality - but would you honestly rely on it at your work?

Look at the MFI historical trends. Does time series really help if you want to forecast sales for January 2009?

Don't ignore sampling, if you are using market research then sampling to forecast sales could be reasonably up-to-date.

tezza.b

I am now panicing as our tutor hasnt covered any of that in our lessons :crying: We did a bit about different methods of sampling but everything you have just said about forecasting and MFI historical trends doesnt mean a lot to me!
Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:

tezza.b

I am now panicing as our tutor hasnt covered any of that in our lessons :crying: We did a bit about different methods of sampling but everything you have just said about forecasting and MFI historical trends doesnt mean a lot to me!
Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:

pink

Ooops, I thought Sandy was using MFI as an example as in the MFI Shop!!?

princess

What is MFI?????? If you got the osbourne book then element 9.1 is pages 245-273......

Pigpen

I must admit I think Sandy did mean MFI (the troubled furniture store) - In that you wouldn't expect their sales to increase next year if you were forcasting - so projections based on the last few years sales would not be useful and another method of forecasting sales would need to be adopted

Well that's what I gathered from his comment especially as it was the day after they ran into trouble!

Sandy clear this one up for us pleeeeeeeeeeease !

princess

Hehe, i have been googling MFI - cost accounting......whoopsie!!!

Still not sure on sampling tho....can anyone help? do we need to calculate or just explain what they are?

Pigpen

I think he (Sandy) means that if you can't use time series as a way of forecasting because of the economic downturn and sales in decline generally then you should find another way of forecasting sales - I.e market research and sampling - You see this kind of thing on the news all the time - Recently the TV have been sampling Joe public to see if the VAT cut would make us spend more - Generally the answer was no - Don't forget there are loads of variations of sampling so probably worth reading thru them all again!

Pigpen

But remember - this time tomorrow it will all be over ! Yippppppeeeeeeeee

Bring on Xmas !

SandyHood

MFI is the name of a company in financial difficulties

If I asked you to predict the weight of a turkey and told you that the last few days had enabled me to put together a linear regression formula of say

Y = a + bX
with Y = weight
a = a fixed weight of 1.5 kg
b = an incremental weight of 0.1 kg
and X = the number of the day

Then if today (Dec 3rd is day 20)
Y = 1.5kg + (0.1kg x 20)
i.e the weight today is 3.5 kg

and tomorrow would be 3.6 kg

How much will my turkey weigh on 27th December?????

tezza.b

5.9kg??

I cannot believe that our tutor hasnt covered anything on linear regression, in fact anything much at all to do with sales forecasting so now i am panicing and trying to teach myself the day before the exam! :crying:

renae

Hi Sandy.... so what would the answer be?? I am getting that sick feeling now - as all my revision is based on past papers as I missed many lessons.... the y=a+bx formula means nothing....and future forecasting was last years reveion....eeeeek

renae

Tezza.....thats what I thought the answer was..........maybe we can blag it?! Either that or I am going to pretend that I never logged on here today, & just keep revising the past papers......ignorance is bliss!

Brownie3

It would be....

27th Dec - Day 25?

1.5kg + 0.1 x 45 - 6kg?

Alternative answer

Surely nothing, as it's bound to be in my belly by 3pm on the 25th Dec :-)

tezza.b

blaggin it is defo the way forward lol!
im just wondering what else i need to know that hasnt been covered in our lessons! :ohmy:
Any more examples Sandy??

Brownie3

Not sure how Sandy is gong to know what you've not learn't in your lesson?

You'll be ok, be postive!

We'll all be fine come lunchtime tomorrow

Pigpen

27th Dec = Day 44

Pigpen

1.5kg + 0.1 x 44 - 5.9kg?

Thats what I made it

tezza.b

After Sandy had said that area 9.1 on sales forecasting was something that was probably going to come up in the exam, i posted that this is something our tutor hasnt gone over! I think it includes all sorts of things such as linear regression, time series analysis etc so i was hoping for some more info or examples like the turkey one previously so i know what i need to cover before the morning! So glad i logged on here now lol!

SandyHood

Brownie3 Well done

Surely nothing, as it's bound to be in my belly by 3pm on the 25th Dec :-)

Look at the context of a question

Surely turkeys would be sold, plucked and prepared, then cooked and eaten by then.

Next question
Do you drive a car according to what you see in the rear view mirror (historic data) or because of what you see ahead of you through the windscreen?

Who says a historic pattern will repeat in the future?

tezza.b

Im not sure what u mean about the turkey question
What was the correct answer?

renae

Same here... I am doing the June 07 paper trying to make myself feel better, as that has historical data & no turkey questions!!

Just a shame that most of section one stems from the sales...so if I stuff that up then everything will be out!

I Heard a rumour once about the rotation of papers, & was advised for my FRA last year to pay special attention to the Dec 2005 paper....which I did...and to be fair they were VERY simular.
Not sure if the same rule applies, but I will def be casting an eye over the June 06 PCR paper tonight....just in case x

Pigpen

Lol - Thanks Sandy

Thats' what I guessed you mean't by the MFI comment but completely ,missed the signifigance of the date on the turkey question - But my brain does hurt this week after PEV on Monday & PCR tomoz - Its harder for us more "mature" students you know

tezza.b

why is it day 45? can u explain i cant get it! :confused1:

Pigpen

tezza.b wrote: »

Im not sure what u mean about the turkey question
What was the correct answer?

What Sandy mean't was that if you use time series alone without "thinking outside the box" as it were, the turkey would indeed be 5.9kg

But as it is Dec 27th the turkey would most likely have been eaten so the time series is only relevant up to the day it is made into Turkey dinner.

If you were told to forecast MFI sales for Jan - Knowing they had gone into receivership you would not base Jans sales on last years figures so you would have to consider another method of forecasting these sales.

Time series is only useful where a trend is expected to continue - I shouldn't think there are many Businesses basing sales for next year on historical data from the last few years now that we are hurtling into recession