Question for Sandy Hood - PCR Dec 08

"""""This will be the first exam set by a new examiner. I have signed up to attend a special session organised for him to discuss the emphasis he plans to take in the exams. This is just for lecturers and will be on Friday 21st, the day before the revision session.
Sandy
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Sandy - Ref your post above - Do you have any words of wisdom about this new examiner now you have attended his day?
Would be grateful if you can let us know if you think the exam will be similar to the past papers or not - Thanks Sandy
Sandy
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Sandy - Ref your post above - Do you have any words of wisdom about this new examiner now you have attended his day?
Would be grateful if you can let us know if you think the exam will be similar to the past papers or not - Thanks Sandy
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Comments
Also, expect guidance on time on each part of the section
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Does the same examiner also set the unit 33 MAC exam?
Thanks
The PEV and MAC examiner is Cliff Floyd
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When you say forecasting, do you mean profit forecasting or the forecasting as in the time series analysis and seasonal variation trends?
Thanks, Stacey
9.1 is the area that has been under-assessed in the past, and that is sales forecasting
But don't assume that historic data will determine future sales. Time Series Analysis is a way of taking account of seasonality - but would you honestly rely on it at your work?
Look at the MFI historical trends. Does time series really help if you want to forecast sales for January 2009?
Don't ignore sampling, if you are using market research then sampling to forecast sales could be reasonably up-to-date.
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Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:
Could you explain it in a little more detail?? or where can i find more information on area 9.1? :confused1:
Well that's what I gathered from his comment especially as it was the day after they ran into trouble!
Sandy clear this one up for us pleeeeeeeeeeease !
Still not sure on sampling tho....can anyone help? do we need to calculate or just explain what they are?
Bring on Xmas !
If I asked you to predict the weight of a turkey and told you that the last few days had enabled me to put together a linear regression formula of say Then if today (Dec 3rd is day 20)
Y = 1.5kg + (0.1kg x 20)
i.e the weight today is 3.5 kg
and tomorrow would be 3.6 kg
How much will my turkey weigh on 27th December?????
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I cannot believe that our tutor hasnt covered anything on linear regression, in fact anything much at all to do with sales forecasting so now i am panicing and trying to teach myself the day before the exam! :crying:
27th Dec - Day 25?
1.5kg + 0.1 x 45 - 6kg?
Alternative answer
Surely nothing, as it's bound to be in my belly by 3pm on the 25th Dec :-)
im just wondering what else i need to know that hasnt been covered in our lessons! :ohmy:
Any more examples Sandy??
You'll be ok, be postive!
We'll all be fine come lunchtime tomorrow
Thats what I made it
Look at the context of a question
Surely turkeys would be sold, plucked and prepared, then cooked and eaten by then.
Next question
Do you drive a car according to what you see in the rear view mirror (historic data) or because of what you see ahead of you through the windscreen?
Who says a historic pattern will repeat in the future?
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What was the correct answer?
Just a shame that most of section one stems from the sales...so if I stuff that up then everything will be out!
I Heard a rumour once about the rotation of papers, & was advised for my FRA last year to pay special attention to the Dec 2005 paper....which I did...and to be fair they were VERY simular.
Not sure if the same rule applies, but I will def be casting an eye over the June 06 PCR paper tonight....just in case x
Thats' what I guessed you mean't by the MFI comment but completely ,missed the signifigance of the date on the turkey question - But my brain does hurt this week after PEV on Monday & PCR tomoz - Its harder for us more "mature" students you know
What Sandy mean't was that if you use time series alone without "thinking outside the box" as it were, the turkey would indeed be 5.9kg
But as it is Dec 27th the turkey would most likely have been eaten so the time series is only relevant up to the day it is made into Turkey dinner.
If you were told to forecast MFI sales for Jan - Knowing they had gone into receivership you would not base Jans sales on last years figures so you would have to consider another method of forecasting these sales.
Time series is only useful where a trend is expected to continue - I shouldn't think there are many Businesses basing sales for next year on historical data from the last few years now that we are hurtling into recession