Trend/seasonal variations.

i knadd ow i pro sound stupid but, i still thinking bout working out the seasonal variation. Can anyone just jot it down as worked example. i dont understand otherwise.

i know how to find the trend line.

I.e if i have six months to find a trend, i have to take the first total from the last total and multiply by 3. to find trend. then times it by twelve (12 months) and add that to the first total to start the next year, blar blar. now im waffling, but on my resit in had to work out seasonal variation and it through me.

Information i was given was
turnover
production
profit
and underlying trend

to attemp it i took the difference between the underlying trend and the turnover to find the seasonal variation. was this right. it was a guess from me.

then i messed the rest up to do the forecast and started scribbling everywhere. HHHelp. as i know IF i havnt failed on this mess i made then the tutor will ask me some questions on this and im stuck.

Can someone show me an example. Please.

Comments

  • whos that girl
    whos that girl Registered Posts: 28 ? ? ?
    I figured it out at long last. thanks to mikes help too. starting with 3 point moving average. theres not much written about it. oh well work hard play less.
  • mikes
    mikes Registered Posts: 254
    glad to be of help.:001_smile:
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