PEV 2009 Task 1.3

Julietta100

Hello I'm completely lost with this one... Looked at the answers and I'm ever more confused... F.ex. in a)The cost per 1,000kg of beans was 1,200 in sept. Seasonal variation was (200) so they are saying that trend would be 1,400... So the negative seasonal variation has been added to the cost?? Why then in b) the negtive seasonal var. has been deducted... Any help would be greatly aprreciated...

P.s. Ahhh that's the PEV December 2009

Rinske

In a you are working out the underlying trend, while in b you work from the underlying trend to the actual figures.

Underlying trend plus seasonal variations is actual costs
Actual costs less seasonal variations is underlying trend

Julietta100

Thank you for the reply=) I'm probably being really thick right now but just to make sure...
If calculating underlying trend you add the negative variations and deduct the positives and if calculating the actual figures the other way round?? And yes I do realise how high the level of my ignorance has risen by asking this :P

anniem

Seasonal Variations; I suppose it's sort of a bit like selling patio furniture.

During the spring demand would be growing, so there would be a + effect on sales

In the summer demand is high, so there would be a +++ effect on sales.

In the autumn, demand would be waning, so there would be a - (minus) demand for patio furniture.

During the winter, there would demand would be ---(minus) demand for garden furniture.


Patio furniture would be available all year around, it's just that there isn't necessarily always the demand, so this is reflected through the use of seasonal variations.


The demand for Christmas trees would have a completely different seasonal variation, with demand being extremely high from 1 - 24 December, then disappearing completely for the other 48.5 weeks of the year!!!!

anniem

Julietta100 wrote: »

Thank you for the reply=) I'm probably being really thick right now but just to make sure...
If calculating underlying trend you add the negative variations and deduct the positives and if calculating the actual figures the other way round?? And yes I do realise how high the level of my ignorance has risen by asking this

Yes, that's exactly what you do. Don't think you're being ignorant asking something on here, we all ask things that other people know the answers to, that's why this forum works

Julietta100

Ah thank you muchlyyyyyyyyyyyy both of you!! I hope I'll still remember it tomorrow =P