Value of Perfect Information
sammyd22
Registered Posts: 207 Dedicated contributor 🦉
In my recent exam paper there was a 5mark question regarding the value of perfect information similar to this:
Project1  Project2  Project3
Probability  Weather:
.3 Good $600 $400 $200
.5 Moderate $200 $150 $100
.2 Poor ($200) $50 ($400)
What is the value that would be paid for perfect information?
I approached the question as follows:
(.3 x $600 + .5 x $200 + .2 x $50) = 180 + 100 + 10 = 290 Therefore a business could afford to pay anything upto this aqmount for perfect info.
As there is a vast amount of knowledge on this forum would anyone be kind enough to advise on whether i approached this correctly?
Project1  Project2  Project3
Probability  Weather:
.3 Good $600 $400 $200
.5 Moderate $200 $150 $100
.2 Poor ($200) $50 ($400)
What is the value that would be paid for perfect information?
I approached the question as follows:
(.3 x $600 + .5 x $200 + .2 x $50) = 180 + 100 + 10 = 290 Therefore a business could afford to pay anything upto this aqmount for perfect info.
As there is a vast amount of knowledge on this forum would anyone be kind enough to advise on whether i approached this correctly?
0
Comments

Wouldn't it be a different value per project?
Question lacks info, but I'm assuming the probability is a weighting of importance?0 
Use your probabilities to find the expected value in the normal way.
Then do the calculations on the basis of knowing what will happen i.e if good weather then probability x that outcome, if moderate prob x outcome and if bad that, then add them up.
The difference in expected value between the higher value (when you know which project to pick) and the lower value (based on the normal expected value calculation) is the value of perfect information.Sandy
sandy@sandyhood.com
www.sandyhood.com0
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