FP trends
Sammys1987
Registered Posts: 57 💫 🐯 💫
Hi,
Just wondered if someone can help, can't work this out.
Sv = +10% +20% 15% 10%
Act cost= 13200 15000 11050 12150
Underlying
Trend. = ? ? ? ?
And is the below correct?
If underlying cost for previous month is £420?
Underlying cost = 440 460 480
Sv. = 30 (10) 30
Forecast sales. = 410? 470? 450?
I can't find it in my books much info on it but its on a practice paper I have.
Please could someone help?
Thanks in advance
Just wondered if someone can help, can't work this out.
Sv = +10% +20% 15% 10%
Act cost= 13200 15000 11050 12150
Underlying
Trend. = ? ? ? ?
And is the below correct?
If underlying cost for previous month is £420?
Underlying cost = 440 460 480
Sv. = 30 (10) 30
Forecast sales. = 410? 470? 450?
I can't find it in my books much info on it but its on a practice paper I have.
Please could someone help?
Thanks in advance
0
Comments

Hi Sammy,
With the first part of the question, I know that to get the underlying trend you take the actual cost and if the seasonal variation is a positive you deduct that figure from the actual cost and vice versa if its negative. However by doing this with the below figures I get :
Actual cost 13200 15000 11050 12150
SV +10% +20% 15% 10%
Trend 11880 12000 12708 13365
Which gives an inconsistent trend: 120,708,657.
Are the figures definately right?
Sorry if I have done this wrong but it doesnt seem to work.
Thanks0 
Hi Amy,
That's exactly the figures I hav got!! Il have to look into it. I thought I was doing it wrong!!
Thanks0 
Well I may be wrong too, but thats the answer I got. Maybe the figures in the question are wrong?
Feel free to send me the question if you can via pm and I can take a look at it.
Thanks0 
OK, your actual values are 13200, 15000, 11050 and 12150, and you know that these are 110%, 120%, 85% and 90% of the underlying (non seasonal variated is that a word?) figures.
So if 13200 is 110%, 100% must be 12000
15000 is 120% so 100% is 12500
If you do the final 2 values you will see that each time, the underlying value goes up by 500, so there is your trend.0 
I don't really know what you mean with the 2nd bit, but from what I can tell from what you've written, your underlying trend is going up by 20 each month and for the 3 months in question (440, 460 and 480), you need to add +30, 10 and +30 to them to get the actual figures, so 470, 450 and 510.0

Thanks nps that is helpful. I did originally put the last figures on my practice assessment and then I thought that was wrong :/.0

Thats good to know Nicola thanks, I always thought in these types of questions the trend should be consistent month after month.
Glad you have got your answer Sammy!0 
Actual SV Trend
Month 1 13200 10% 12000
Month 2 15000 20% 12500
Month 3 11050 15% 13000
Month 4 12150 10% 135000 
Thank you!!
Does anyone know how to do the other question? I can't remember if u do the opposite ie if its positive you subtract it, if its negative you add it??
Thanks0 
It should be covered in my 2nd post, if I've understood the question right.0

As NPS said:
Underlying cost = trend I believe so:
Underlying cost = 440 460 480
Sv. = 30 (10) 30
Actual should be: 470 450 5100
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