FP trends

Registered Posts: 57 💫 🐯 💫
Hi,

Just wondered if someone can help, can't work this out.

Sv = +10% +20% -15% -10%

Act cost= 13200 15000 11050 12150

Underlying
Trend. = ? ? ? ?

And is the below correct?

If underlying cost for previous month is £420?

Underlying cost = 440 460 480

Sv. = 30 (10) 30

Forecast sales. = 410? 470? 450?

I can't find it in my books much info on it but its on a practice paper I have.

• Registered Posts: 314
Hi Sammy,

With the first part of the question, I know that to get the underlying trend you take the actual cost and if the seasonal variation is a positive you deduct that figure from the actual cost and vice versa if its negative. However by doing this with the below figures I get :

Actual cost 13200 15000 11050 12150
SV +10% +20% -15% -10%
Trend 11880 12000 12708 13365

Which gives an inconsistent trend: 120,708,657.

Are the figures definately right?

Sorry if I have done this wrong but it doesnt seem to work.

Thanks
• Registered Posts: 57 💫 🐯 💫
Hi Amy,

That's exactly the figures I hav got!! Il have to look into it. I thought I was doing it wrong!!

Thanks
• Registered Posts: 314
Well I may be wrong too, but thats the answer I got. Maybe the figures in the question are wrong?

Feel free to send me the question if you can via pm and I can take a look at it.

Thanks
• Registered Posts: 782
OK, your actual values are 13200, 15000, 11050 and 12150, and you know that these are 110%, 120%, 85% and 90% of the underlying (non seasonal variated- is that a word?) figures.

So if 13200 is 110%, 100% must be 12000
15000 is 120% so 100% is 12500
If you do the final 2 values you will see that each time, the underlying value goes up by 500, so there is your trend.
• Registered Posts: 782
I don't really know what you mean with the 2nd bit, but from what I can tell from what you've written, your underlying trend is going up by 20 each month and for the 3 months in question (440, 460 and 480), you need to add +30, -10 and +30 to them to get the actual figures, so 470, 450 and 510.
• Registered Posts: 57 💫 🐯 💫
Thanks nps that is helpful. I did originally put the last figures on my practice assessment and then I thought that was wrong :-/.
• Registered Posts: 314
Thats good to know Nicola thanks, I always thought in these types of questions the trend should be consistent month after month.

• Registered Posts: 465
Actual SV Trend
Month 1 13200 10% 12000
Month 2 15000 20% 12500
Month 3 11050 -15% 13000
Month 4 12150 -10% 13500
• Registered Posts: 57 💫 🐯 💫
Thank you!!

Does anyone know how to do the other question? I can't remember if u do the opposite ie if its positive you subtract it, if its negative you add it??

Thanks
• Registered Posts: 782
It should be covered in my 2nd post, if I've understood the question right.
• Registered Posts: 465
As NPS said:

Underlying cost = trend I believe so:

Underlying cost = 440 460 480

Sv. = 30 (10) 30

Actual should be: 470 450 510