Mutiplicative Seasonal variations

System
System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
edited June 18 in AAT student discussion
From a set of centred moving averages how do you calculate the seasonal components using a multiplicative model?

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  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Mutiplicative Seasonal variations

    Find the sales value per quarter and divide it by the trend value for the same quarter<BR>Then average out all the quarter ones, all the quarter twos etc<BR>You then have four average seasonal variation values (which should add up to about 4)<BR><BR>I guess you know what to do next, but in case another reader would like to know ;<BR>continue your trend value into the future and then multiply the trend value for a given quarter by the appropriate seasonal variation. This gives a forecast sales value.<BR><BR>If you read around you will see seasonal indices and seasonal adjustment factors mentioned. These are just different names for the seasonal variation under the multiplicative approach.<BR><BR>sandy.hood@chichester.ac.uk<BR><BR>
  • System
    System Posts: 100,534 🤖 Admin 🤖
    Mutiplicative Seasonal variations

    That's great, thanks very much!

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